Is Stand-Alone Memory Care a Good Investment? Part 2

By Scott McCorvie | CEO of Enhance Senior Living

Learn more about tailored senior living investment solutions at Enhance Senior Living.

In the first segment of this two-part series, I discussed a brief history of the memory care product, as well as a summary of the programming and design benefits compared to traditional assisted living or a secured memory car wing. I also summarized a proforma analysis demonstrating how the yield-to-cost and total annualized return (IRR) is artificially high compared to other senior living product types. This inflated yield, along with decreased development timing and costs, spurred stand-along memory care development across the United States. However, even with the higher potential yields, is stand-alone memory care a good investment? In this article, I’ll dig deeper into the investment risks and mitigating factors to consider before investing in stand-alone memory care.  

One of the biggest misconceptions’ investors have regarding stand-alone memory care, is that it leases-up and maintains a stabilized occupancy like other senior living products. This is further from the truth. Memory care is the most immediate and need-based product in senior living, and the decision to move a loved one into memory care is made decisively and quickly. So, it’s difficult to maintain pre-opening and/or operating waiting lists like other senior living communities. Additionally, the memory care average length-of-stay is shorter than other senior living options (especially during flu season), which means it’s crucial to maintain a steady supply of new residents. However, stand-alone memory care is at a disadvantage here, as it does not have a supply of in-house residents, like communities offering a full continuum-of-care. The number of units/beds is also lower in stand-alone memory care, which elevates the risk of not covering debt service and/or fixed charges when there are a large number of discharges in a given month (and no waiting list). Stand-alone memory care is the only product type I’ve seen that can have dramatic downward shifts in occupancy in a single month.

So, these are all real risks to consider before investing in stand-alone memory care, but are there any ways investors can mitigate these risks? The simple answer is yes – with a strong, experienced operator. A strong stand-alone memory care operator will have ample experience marketing the niche design and specialized programming as key advantages to traditional senior living communities. Also, a good stand-alone memory care operator’s marketing program should focus on several key referral sources (Alzheimer’s Association, home healthcare agencies, local doctor groups, hospitals, etc.), and not need to rely on broader marketing strategies and in-house resident sources. A strong operator should also always have a daily pulse on occupancy and financials and be able to adjust the staffing and expenses immediately, if needed. The investor/operator should also be willing to continually invest in the community, as flooring and furniture wear-and-tear is high, and new wandering management and cognitive improvement technology is always being created and introduced to maintain a competitive advantage in the market.  

Okay, so I presented many risks, as well as some mitigating factors, but is stand-alone memory care a good investment? Personally, I would be very cautious on investing in any new stand-alone memory care development, or stand-alone memory care with a short operating history. I would also spend a lot of time understanding and underwriting the operator’s experience, senior and local management team, risk management procedures, focused marketing strategies, regional impact, and long-term vision. Of course, market, location, design, competition and reputation are always huge factors to consider before any senior living investment decision. I would also underwrite a very conservative stabilized occupancy, lower market rates (for likely concessions), and large annual capital expenditures. I wouldn’t base my pricing on a year one NOI to market cap rate methodology, but would factor in a variable discounted cash flow analysis (considering operating swings and annual capital expenditures) along with a pricing comparison to replacement cost (for new competition). Overall, stand-alone memory care product is here to stay, but utilizing conservative underwriting and pricing models will help make sure your senior living investment is a success.

By Scott McCorvie | CEO of Enhance Senior Living

Learn more about tailored senior living investment brokerage and advisory solutions at Enhance Senior Living.

enhanceseniorlivnig.com | seniorlivinginvestments.com | srgrowth.com | generationalmovement.com

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Is Stand-alone Memory Care a Good Investment

Per Resident Day Analysis

By Scott McCorvie | CEO, Enhance Senior Living

Learn about Senior Living Investment Brokerage and Senior Living Investment Advisory Strategies at Enhanced Senior Living.

Senior Living Per Resident Day Analysis

Whether you’re creating a proforma model with varying lease-up and stabilization scenarios, or comparing the operating performance between different assets and operators, you’ve probably heard the term, “Per Resident Day” (PRD).  The PRD metric is one of the most useful performance tools within the industry, and can be successfully leveraged to add value in a number of different situations. Within this article, I’ll analyze the actual PRD calculation, discuss why this industry tool is so useful, and demonstrate several ways it can be used to create value in everyday applications.  

Let’s start with the actual calculation. Just as it sounds, the PRD calculation is the actual hard revenue and expense line-items divided by the number of resident days in the period (month, quarter, year, etc.). The revenues and departmental expenses are easily identified within the financials, but what if you don’t know the number of resident days? Well, this can actually be estimated by taking the number of occupied beds in the period, adding an estimate (or ratio) for second residents (double occupied units), and multiplying this figure by the number of days. So, if you had 90 occupied beds in June, and typically 10% are double occupied, the calculation would be ((90+9) x 30) = 2,970 resident days. You would then take the monthly expense (i.e., raw food costs of $18,500) and divide by the number of days (2,970) to calculate the PRD ($18,500 / 2,790) = $6.23 raw food costs PRD.

So, why is this metric so important? One of the greatest advantages in this tool is the ability to compare the operational performance between properties with varying sizes (number of units) and occupancy. Obviously the expenses are going to be higher at a 100% occupied 120-unit AL/MC property compared to a 90% occupied 40-unit MC property, but how do the same departmental expenses compare on a PRD basis? The 40-unit property may be doing a more efficient job in expense management, and actually have a lower PRD expense indication than the larger property. Or, the smaller property may be doing an excellent job in dietary, but the housekeeping and nursing expenses are much higher PRD. Having a solid understanding of the PRD performance between properties is not only valuable in comparing performance, but can also be used to identify key areas of inefficiency and help create plans for future improvement. Linking this performance to industry reports (State of Seniors Housing, etc.) can provide dynamic industry benchmarking analysis and dashboard reports.

PRD assumptions are also very crucial in creating sophisticated senior housing proforma models. Analyzing the revenues and expenses on a PRD basis can show regressions and trends within the performance that can be utilized to more accurately project the go-forward performance. Linking the proforma model to the appropriate PRD assumptions can also provide a more precise sensitively and scenario analysis. Last, including the PRD variables with a multi-year staffing model, unit revenue matrix, and a monthly absorption can provide more in-depth forecast on future lease-up performance and stabilization. This can be crucial in accurately projecting the financial performance for new development, conversion projects, management transitions, and other lease-up scenarios.

Overall, the PRD metric is one of the more vital tools within the industry, and can be used within a number of applications.

To learn more about ways to enhance our senior living industry, be sure to subscribe to the podcast, The Inner Circle of Senior Living.

By Scott McCorvie | CEO, Enhance Senior Living

Learn about Senior Living Investment Brokerage and Senior Living Investment Advisory Strategies at Enhanced Senior Living.

enhanceseniorlivnig.com | seniorlivinginvestments.com | srgrowth.com | generationalmovement.com