Is Stand-Alone Memory Care a Good Investment? Part 1

By Scott McCorvie | CEO of Enhance Senior Living

Learn more about tailored senior living investment solutions at Enhance Senior Living.

Memory Care is the newest product type in senior living, and due to its specialized care and higher potential yield, it quickly grabbed the attention of many senior living investors. And, with the inflated rent per square foot, stand-alone memory care development quickly began booming across the United States. However, upon talking to various developers, investors, and lenders, I quickly realized there was a lot of misconception about the risks and operational volatility associated to stand-alone memory care. So, in this two-part series, I’ll summarize the history of memory care, discuss some of the benefits and amenities, and analyze some of the potential risks and volatility concerns inherent in this type of product.

The memory care product was born in the mid-to-late 1990s, as the second generation of assisted living product was quickly booming across the United States. Owners, operators, and families quickly realized that the resident’s care was beyond the scope of traditional assisted living (primarily due a residents unsafe wandering), but did not want to move their family member into a secured wing of an older skilled nursing facility. Therefore, the memory care product was born. Assisted living communities began ‘securing’ one of their wings as a ‘dementia unit’ and added specialized nursing staff to help with the increased care. These units had a separate pricing model, as they required a different level of care.

Securing against resident wandering was a necessary first step, but communities quickly realized that other amenities and programming could be added to enhance the overall quality of life and attract new residents. To help keep the unit pricing down, the majority of the offered memory care units were semi-private or companion suites and were located within a secured first floor wing of an assisted living community. Other memory care amenities were quickly added including a central lounge, activity center, serving kitchen, specialized dining room, separate nurses’ station, and enclosed courtyard / walking path. Specialized staffing and programming was focused on cognition improvement, and ‘memory stations’ (vintage photographs, clothing, buttons, tools, etc.) were added around the secured unit to help maintain and improve memory function.

With the increased knowledge of the new memory care product, families quickly began moving residents into these secured units, and memory care occupancy increased across the United States. With the greater number of semi-private units, developers quickly realized a full memory care unit (two semi-private beds combined), could receive $9,000 - $12,000 in rent versus the traditional assisted living of $3,000 - $6,000. Additionally, the net income per constructed square foot was much higher due to the minimal amount of common area. Although nursing care and operating expenses are higher in the memory care units, the potential yield on construction cost was extremely attractive to many developers. Thus, the creation of the stand-alone memory care community was born. The stand-alone memory care community began massive development across the United States in the mid-2000’s. The design could be standardized and generally consisted of 40-60 beds (primarily semi-private units) around a central courtyard. The same design could be replicated in many markets — saving the developer in timely and expensive architecture and design costs.  

Although the potential yield is much higher than other senior living product types, is stand-alone memory care a good investment? What are some of the benefits, along with some of the risks in underwriting and investing in stand-alone memory care? Do the current cap rates reflect this risk? Is there anything that an owner/operator can do to help mitigate the risks? In my next segment, I’ll answer these questions, along with some others, as I dive deeper in things to consider before investing in stand-alone memory care

To learn more about ways to enhance our senior living industry, be sure to subscribe to, The Inner Circle of Senior Living.

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Senior Living Development Feasibility

By Scott McCorvie | CEO, Enhance Senior Living

Learn about Senior Living Investment Brokerage and Senior Living Investment Advisory Strategies at Enhanced Senior Living.

Senior Living Development Feasibility

With the increasing number of seniors housing transactions trading at a large premium to the replacement cost (sometimes double), along with the increased availability of construction debt, there seems to be a renewed energy in the seniors housing development space. However, what makes a seniors housing development project feasible?

Simply put, a development project is feasible with the expected returns are greater than (or equal to) the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). But, what is the WACC of each project, and how is it calculated? As an equation, the WACC is a percentage-based average of the cost of debt added to the cost of equity (WACC = (% debt x cost of debt) + (% equity x cost of equity)). Since the equity is in a riskier position then the debt (remember, the debt holder will always be paid first), the cost of equity is always higher than the cost of debt.

Let’s say you receive a 75% loan-to-cost construction loan with an effective (inclusive of loan fees, etc.) interest rate of 6%. Also, let’s say you were able to secure the remaining 25% equity from an investor expecting to make a total return of 20%. Multiplying these together will give you the implied WACC of 9.5% ((75% x 6%) + (25% x 20%)). In other words, you would need an unleveraged internal rate of return (IRR, or annualized total return) higher than or equal to 9.5% for the project to be feasible.

Since the internal rate of return includes a holding period assumption and uncertain exit cap rate (to be discussed in a later article), another simpler way to analyze the feasibility of the project is to measure the WACC to the stabilized yield-to-cost. The stabilized yield-to-cost is similar to a cap rate, but divides the expected stabilized net operating income by the total development budget (YTC = stab. income / dev. budget). The development budget should include all fees and costs needed to fully stabilize the project (including pre-marketing costs, development fees, and lease-up/interest reserves). So, for a senior housing development project to be feasible, the stabilized YTC must be higher than the WACC. Also, the selected market rates, care charges, and operating margin should be carefully analyzed to determine the suitability of the proforma assumptions. Since the annual income drives both feasibility metrics, an unrealistic proforma model can artificially inflate or deflate the returns.

Last, one of the most important metrics to determine the feasibility of the seniors housing development project is to analyze the total development budget on a per unit basis. If the development per unit cost is too high, there is risk that another developer will construct a less expensive seniors housing project down the street, be able to charge lower rates/fees, and most likely drive down your operating performance. But, what is an appropriate development cost per unit? Unfortunately, this varies from market-to-market (varying land costs, entitlement, licensure, CON, construction costs), and operator-to-operator (varying pre-marketing costs, management fees, lease-up reserves), but generally can be compared on a segmented basis by allocating the land costs, hard costs, soft costs, FF&E, contingencies, developer fees, pre-marketing costs, and reserves.

To learn more ways to enhance our senior living industry, be sure to subscribe to the podcast, The Inner Circle of Senior Living.

By Scott McCorvie | CEO, Enhance Senior Living

Learn about Senior Living Investment Brokerage and Senior Living Investment Advisory Strategies at Enhanced Senior Living.

enhanceseniorlivnig.com | seniorlivinginvestments.com | srgrowth.com | generationalmovement.com